Dayton employment to remain sluggish into third quarter - Jacksonville Business Journal:

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Tom Traynor, an economics professorf at Wright State and author ofthe report, said unemploymeng increases will continue at their accelerated pace into the thir quarter of this year. The Dayton Metropolitajn Statistical Area, which includes Montgomery, Greene, Miami and Preble counties, is projected to lose 6,000 to 7,000 jobs in the thirdd quarter. That would drop employment to 373,900, down from 380,4090 in the first quarter of the year, a 2 percenft decline. The hardest-hit area is one the Dayton area has longreliesd on, manufacturing. “Manufacturing employment will fall Traynor said.
Forecasts from the report show employmentg in the sector fallingfrom 42,300 in the firstr quarter of this year to 36,100p by the third quarter, a nearly 15 percentr drop. Durable goods manufacturing will be hit in Traynor said. “People aren’t spending. They are waiting to buy a new car or that new he said. Retail and service employment are also expectedeto decrease. Retail employment is expected to dropto 39,10o by the third quarter, down from 40,000 in the first quarter, a 2 percent drop.
Servicew employment, which includes financiao service, business service, utilities and leisurde service, is projected to decreasse to 324,200 by the third quarter, down from 326,700 in the firs t quarter, a nearly 1 percent decline. “Ther next year to year and a half will be an unpleasany time forthe region,” Traynor said. Construction employment is expecte to rise as a part ofseasonal employment, to 13,409 from 11,400 in the first but that is 1,000 jobs fewer than the same time perior last year. One area of employmenr that isn’t expected to be hit hard is health care.
In fact, Traynor said he expectds health care to add some jobs by thethirr quarter, going up to 56,500 from 56,300 in the first quarter. He said the rate of decline in grossa domestic productwill slow, but remain negative through the third quarter and maybe into the fourth quarter of this Even when GDP does become positivde again, it will take some time for employmenyt to pick up because it is a lagging indicator of economic recovery. Trayno said there is a great deal of uncertainty stilk on thenational level, as businesses try to determine the impact of governmen t actions.
Traynor said the problem of high unemploymenty is not going awayanytime “This is something we’re going to be living with for quite a well into next year,” he said.